The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday officially declared the arrival of El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, signalling a development that could affect India’s southwest monsoon in the coming months.
In its latest El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) bulletin, the weather agency said ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have crossed the threshold required for an El Niño event. Atmospheric patterns have also begun responding to the warming waters, indicating that the phenomenon is now firmly established.
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“Currently, El Niño conditions are present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season. The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and the coupled ocean-atmosphere system now exhibits characteristics consistent with El Niño conditions,” the bulletin said.
The confirmation comes shortly after the Japan Meteorological Agency reported that oceanic and atmospheric indicators pointed to an ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific.
Monsoon outlook remains below normal
Even before formally declaring El Niño, the IMD had projected a weaker-than-normal monsoon this year. In its updated forecast issued on May 29, the department estimated seasonal rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), lower than the 92% forecast released in April.
The LPA, calculated using rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 cm. The IMD has also indicated a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon season.
According to the agency, El Niño is expected to have a greater influence during the latter half of the monsoon period, potentially reducing rainfall across several regions.
Pacific warming likely to intensify
The IMD noted that after a La Niña phase that lasted from August 2025 to February 2026, neutral conditions prevailed between March and May. However, by June, the three-month running mean Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly had crossed the El Niño threshold of 0.5C.
Forecasts generated by the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) suggest that warming in the Pacific Ocean could strengthen further during the monsoon season.
“The latest MMCFS plume and probability forecasts suggest moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season,” the bulletin stated.
Neutral IOD may offer little relief
While El Niño often weakens India’s monsoon, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can sometimes offset part of its impact. However, the IMD said neutral IOD conditions currently prevail and are likely to continue through the season.
An IMD official said that with no positive IOD support expected, El Niño’s influence could remain significant.
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“A positive IOD offsets the impact somewhat, but in the current conditions, El Nino will remain strong. This is why we are expecting 90% of the LPA. While monsoon progress is around normal presently, further progress may also be impacted by El Nino setting in.”
Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon continued its advance on Friday, covering more parts of West Bengal and Bihar, along with some areas of Odisha and Jharkhand.
FAQs:
What is El Niño, and how does it affect India’s monsoon?
El Niño is a warming of Pacific Ocean waters that often leads to below-normal monsoon rainfall and higher temperatures in India.
Has the IMD officially confirmed El Niño conditions in 2026?
Yes, the IMD has confirmed El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific and expects them to strengthen during the monsoon season.
